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A method for anticipating the disruptive nature of digitalization in the machine-building industry

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A method for anticipating the disruptive nature of digitalization in the machine-building industry. / Sommarberg, Matti; Mäkinen, Saku J.

In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2018.

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@article{133a9c3c4dd744a68585abf0a074f0f1,
title = "A method for anticipating the disruptive nature of digitalization in the machine-building industry",
abstract = "The purpose of this paper is to create a technology foresight method in which the visual analogue scale is used to harness the wisdom of expert crowds, namely, industry experts, in anticipating potential disruptions in an industry. In an empirical demonstration, we investigate experts' views and perceptions of possible future disruption caused by digitalization in an established machine-building industry. We demonstrate the usability of the proposed method in detecting future worldviews of experts grouped by their position in the value chain. The results show polarized responses, with considerable clustering among groups. For example, respondents who were inclined to view digital technologies as disruptive (i.e., as changing the paradigm of value creation in machine-building) also viewed them as related more to service and business models than to products and operation. We discuss the theoretical and practical contributions of the proposed method and suggest fruitful avenues for future research.",
keywords = "Disruptive technologies, Industry transformation, Strategy formation, Technology foresight, Visual analogue scale",
author = "Matti Sommarberg and M{\"a}kinen, {Saku J.}",
year = "2018",
doi = "10.1016/j.techfore.2018.07.044",
language = "English",
journal = "Technological Forecasting and Social Change",
issn = "0040-1625",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

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TY - JOUR

T1 - A method for anticipating the disruptive nature of digitalization in the machine-building industry

AU - Sommarberg, Matti

AU - Mäkinen, Saku J.

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - The purpose of this paper is to create a technology foresight method in which the visual analogue scale is used to harness the wisdom of expert crowds, namely, industry experts, in anticipating potential disruptions in an industry. In an empirical demonstration, we investigate experts' views and perceptions of possible future disruption caused by digitalization in an established machine-building industry. We demonstrate the usability of the proposed method in detecting future worldviews of experts grouped by their position in the value chain. The results show polarized responses, with considerable clustering among groups. For example, respondents who were inclined to view digital technologies as disruptive (i.e., as changing the paradigm of value creation in machine-building) also viewed them as related more to service and business models than to products and operation. We discuss the theoretical and practical contributions of the proposed method and suggest fruitful avenues for future research.

AB - The purpose of this paper is to create a technology foresight method in which the visual analogue scale is used to harness the wisdom of expert crowds, namely, industry experts, in anticipating potential disruptions in an industry. In an empirical demonstration, we investigate experts' views and perceptions of possible future disruption caused by digitalization in an established machine-building industry. We demonstrate the usability of the proposed method in detecting future worldviews of experts grouped by their position in the value chain. The results show polarized responses, with considerable clustering among groups. For example, respondents who were inclined to view digital technologies as disruptive (i.e., as changing the paradigm of value creation in machine-building) also viewed them as related more to service and business models than to products and operation. We discuss the theoretical and practical contributions of the proposed method and suggest fruitful avenues for future research.

KW - Disruptive technologies

KW - Industry transformation

KW - Strategy formation

KW - Technology foresight

KW - Visual analogue scale

U2 - 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.07.044

DO - 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.07.044

M3 - Article

JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change

JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change

SN - 0040-1625

ER -