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A novel epidemic model considering demographics and intercity commuting on complex dynamical networks

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number125517
Number of pages21
JournalApplied Mathematics and Computation
Volume386
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020
Publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Abstract

In order to characterize the impact of demographics and intercity commuting between cities on epidemic propagation, we propose a novel two-city epidemic model, where the spreading process is depicted by using SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model. The infectious diseases can spread in two cities at the same time, and be taken from one city to the other through intercity commuters. Firstly, we take use of the spectral analysis method to obtain the basic reproduction number R0 of the model. Then, the equilibria including the endemic equilibrium and disease-free one of the proposed model are analyzed and calculated, and the results indicate that they are globally asymptotic stable. Moreover, the degree distribution of the population changes over time, forming a complex dynamical networks before the system reaches a steady state. Finally, through a large number of numerical simulations, we show that demographics, intercity commuting rates and exposed individuals during commuting have great effects on the epidemic spreading behavior between two cities. The analysis of the proposed model can further help to understand the transmission behavior of epidemics in reality, and it is also of great practical significance to predict the epidemic trends among cities and design effective measures to curb the infectious diseases.

Keywords

  • Complex dynamical networks, Demographics, Equilibrium analysis, Intercity commuting, Two-city epidemic model

Publication forum classification

Field of science, Statistics Finland