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Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles: flaws in assumptions

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Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles: flaws in assumptions. / Suominen, Arho; Seppänen, Marko.

In: Foresight, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2014, p. 37-53.

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@article{5f2b31fe5b0b4862aef3e3b15a50e299,
title = "Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles: flaws in assumptions",
abstract = "PurposeMotivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, we demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data Design/methodology/approachWe use Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations. FindingsWe show how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. We recommend carefully to examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity.Originality/valueWe are motivated by the fact that despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed.",
author = "Arho Suominen and Marko Sepp{\"a}nen",
note = "Poistettu tupla r=137<br/>Contribution: organisation=tta,FACT1=1<br/>Portfolio EDEND: 2014-04-29<br/>Publisher name: Emerald Group Publishing Ltd.",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1108/FS-03-2013-0007",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
pages = "37--53",
journal = "Foresight",
issn = "1463-6689",
publisher = "Emerald",
number = "1",

}

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles: flaws in assumptions

AU - Suominen, Arho

AU - Seppänen, Marko

N1 - Poistettu tupla r=137<br/>Contribution: organisation=tta,FACT1=1<br/>Portfolio EDEND: 2014-04-29<br/>Publisher name: Emerald Group Publishing Ltd.

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - PurposeMotivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, we demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data Design/methodology/approachWe use Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations. FindingsWe show how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. We recommend carefully to examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity.Originality/valueWe are motivated by the fact that despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed.

AB - PurposeMotivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, we demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data Design/methodology/approachWe use Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations. FindingsWe show how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. We recommend carefully to examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity.Originality/valueWe are motivated by the fact that despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed.

U2 - 10.1108/FS-03-2013-0007

DO - 10.1108/FS-03-2013-0007

M3 - Article

VL - 16

SP - 37

EP - 53

JO - Foresight

JF - Foresight

SN - 1463-6689

IS - 1

ER -