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Modeling of Age-Dependent Failure Tendency from Incomplete Data

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionScientificpeer-review


Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationEngineering Asset Management 2011
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the Sixth World Congress on Engineering Asset Management
EditorsJay Lee, Jun Ni, Jagnathan Sarangapani, Joseph Mathew
Place of PublicationLondon
PublisherSpringer-Verlag London Limited
Number of pages11
ISBN (Print)978-1-4471-4993-4
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
EventWorld Congress on Engineering Asset Management -
Duration: 1 Jan 1900 → …

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering
ISSN (Print)2195-4356


ConferenceWorld Congress on Engineering Asset Management
Period1/01/00 → …


This paper addresses modeling of age-dependent failure rates from incomplete data that includes interval-censored failure ages. Two estimators for cumulative failure rates are presented: a simple non-parametric estimator and a maximum-likelihood method based on the gamma distribution and the non-homogeneous Poisson process. The maximum-likelihood fit of familiar parametric models (e.g., the power law) to the available field data from an aircraft component was far from satisfactory, so a special three-parameter model function had to be worked out. The maximum-likelihood estimate obtained is then used for repeated random generation of different data sets akin to the field data. This way the effect of data set size, censoring rate, and randomness on the non-parametric estimate can be analyzed to get practical appraisals.

Publication forum classification

Field of science, Statistics Finland