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Probabilistic Framework for Modelling the Evolution of Geomorphic Features in 10,000-Year Time Scale: The Eurajoki River Case

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterScientificpeer-review


Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationGeospatial Data in a Changing World
Subtitle of host publicationSelected papers of the 19th AGILE Conference on Geographic Information Science
PublisherSpringer Verlag
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-319-33783-8
ISBN (Print)978-3-319-33782-1
Publication statusPublished - 2016
Publication typeA3 Part of a book or another research book
EventAGILE International Conference on Geographic Information Science -
Duration: 1 Jan 2000 → …

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography
ISSN (Print)1863-2246


ConferenceAGILE International Conference on Geographic Information Science
Period1/01/00 → …


In this paper the long-term evolution of the catchment area of Eurajoki River, situated in Western Finland, is studied. The modelling area, nearly 1000 km2 in size, is at present mostly covered by sea. Probabilistic digital elevation model and land uplift model form the basis for the future catchment area modelling. A land uplift model is required due to the ongoing post-glacial rebound especially in the western parts of Finland. The maximum rate of land uplift in Finland is 1 cm per year while in the modelling area the land uplift rate is about 6 mm per year. The digital elevation model and land uplift model have been calculated using Monte Carlo simulation where the uncertainties in the source data have been taken into account. The probabilistic nature of these models enables also the river catchment area and river network analyses probabilistically. The analyses are done for the next 10,000 years in 1000-year intervals and 100 realizations are estimated for each time point. The results show that the catchment area expands towards the west as the land rises. An alternative river branch flowing northwards from the main course will form with a significant probability. Also, a delta area with multiple river branches is expected to form at about 7000 years after present.

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