TUTCRIS - Tampereen teknillinen yliopisto

TUTCRIS

Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles: flaws in assumptions

Tutkimustuotosvertaisarvioitu

Yksityiskohdat

AlkuperäiskieliEnglanti
Sivut37-53
Sivumäärä17
JulkaisuForesight
Vuosikerta16
Numero1
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - 2014
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli

Tiivistelmä

Purpose
Motivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, we demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data
Design/methodology/approach
We use Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations.
Findings
We show how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. We recommend carefully to examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity.
Originality/value
We are motivated by the fact that despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed.

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